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The "baby-boomers"
are on the move! Where
are they all going?
Based on "rate of growth",
the 3 fastest-growing states are;
#1
Nevada
#2
Arizona
#3
Florida
Based on "total population
growth", the 3 fastest-growing states are;
#1
Florida
#2
Texas
#3
Arizona
Based on "net internal migration",
the 3 fastest-growing states are;
#1
Florida
#2
Arizona
#3
Nevada
Net Internal Migration -
the difference between internal in-migration to an area and internal
out-migration from the same area during a time period. Internal in- and
out-migration consist of moves where both the origin and the destination are
with in the United States (excluding Puerto Rico). The net internal migration
rate expresses net internal migration during a time period as a percentage of an
area’s population at the midpoint of the time period.
Based on "net internal
migration", the 2 fastest-growing regions are;
#1
South Atlantic
(Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida,
Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia).
#2
Mountain (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana,
Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming).
Based on "net internal migration",
the blue state regions are gaining
population and the red state regions are
losing population.
Blue
state regions; South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central and
Mountain.
Red
state regions; New England, Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West North
Central and Pacific.
Fact; the Median Sale Price
appreciation rate in the Twin Cities metro area has been on the decline since
2001.
Fact; the Median Sale Price
appreciation rate nationwide has been on the incline since 1999.
Coincidence? I don't believe so.
Remember, the baby-boom generation is defined as those people born between 1946
and 1964. In 1999 the first wave of "baby-boomers" started the
migration to "retirement" states. Therefore, since 1999, the demand
for housing has increased in the blue state regions and the result has been
higher appreciation rates. What's happening in the red state
regions? Just the opposite! As more and more retirees migrate to the
blue state regions, the supply of housing has increased in the red
state regions and the result has been lower appreciation rates. As always,
supply and demand is a major factor in determining real estate values and
appreciation rates. If a marketplace has a high inventory of homes for
sale, it will have a negative impact on sale prices and therefore the
appreciation rate. Conversely, if a marketplace has a low inventory of
homes for sale and a high demand, it will drive prices up and will have a
dramatic and positive effect on the appreciation rate.
Look at what's happening in the Twin Cities
area. The inventory of homes for sale continues to escalate. Month
after month, we're seeing 30+% increases in inventory over the previous year's
same month. Never before have we seen so many houses for sale. And
it's taking a toll on the appreciation rate. Year after year, the
appreciation rate keeps "ticking down". Here's
a FastFact from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors;
"Individuals aged 55 and older accounted for 41% of home sellers last year
(2004), and the number will rise higher as the number of empty nesters grows, a
report from the Senior Advantage Real Estate Council finds. In addition,
the population of baby boomers and seniors will skyrocket 87% by 2020, according
to "Baby Boomers: The Next Generation Seniors Market--Trends That Impact
Seniors' Home Buying and Selling Habits." What does it all
mean? More than likely, the inventory of homes for sale in the Twin Cities
area will continue to increase. More than likely, the appreciation rate in
the Twin Cities area will continue to "tick down." Should you be
alarmed? No! Should you be concerned? Yes! As a buyer,
now more than ever, you must buy right! As a seller, the pressure on
pricing will force you to be more competitive in the marketplace.
Links to related data,
information and articles.
U.S
Census Bureau 2004 data
Baby
Boomer Report annual opinion survey
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Lou
Forsberg; Coldwell Banker Burnet realtor in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and
St.
Paul and the surrounding communities of Apple Valley, Bloomington, Buffalo, Burnsville,
Champlin Park, Chanhassen, Chaska, Corcoran, Crystal, Delano, Egan, Eden Prairie, Edina,
Golden Valley, Hopkins, Independence, Maple Grove, Maple Plain, Minnetonka,
Minnetrista, New Hope, Orono, Osseo,
Plymouth, Robbinsdale, Rockford, St. Bonifacious, St. Louis Park, St. Michael-Albertville,
Waconia, Watertown and the entire Lake Minnetonka area including
Cottagewood,
Deephaven, Excelsior, Greenwood, Mound, Shorewood, Tonka Bay, Wayzata and
Woodland.
or call 952.476.3656
